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Issue Info: 
  • Year: 

    2024
  • Volume: 

    13
  • Issue: 

    1
  • Pages: 

    87-110
Measures: 
  • Citations: 

    0
  • Views: 

    113
  • Downloads: 

    55
Abstract: 

Introduction: The current research tries to identify the factors affecting the growth of professional sports clubs, which affect the development of the sports industry, by focusing on the strategic foresight of Iran's professional sports with a world-class approach.Methods: The data of this qualitative research, which had an exploratory-fundamental nature, was collected through targeted sampling with the snowball technique and based on semi-structured in-depth interviews with 20 experts in the field of professional sports clubs. A detailed interpretative understanding and preliminary and theoretical codings determined that professional sports clubs can build their desired future based on the requirements of shaping the future, by overcoming the weight of the past, the pressure of the present and in line with the tension of the future and the choice of proactive behavior in facing the future, set a perspective for it.Results: In this research, a total of fifteen main factors affecting the strategic foresight of Iran's professional sports with a world-class approach include: sports structure, foundational factors, hardware infrastructure, background factors, key stakeholders, development with a global approach, actors Key, human resource development, and possible consequences, global development consequences, preferred future, uncertainties, drivers and surprises were identified.Conclusion: In general, economic considerations are described in world-class professional sports more than anything else, although cultural elements also play a role in this field. Despite the importance of culture in globalization discourses in sports, economic considerations play an important role.

Yearly Impact: مرکز اطلاعات علمی Scientific Information Database (SID) - Trusted Source for Research and Academic Resources

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Issue Info: 
  • Year: 

    2018
  • Volume: 

    4
  • Issue: 

    4 (8)
  • Pages: 

    86-100
Measures: 
  • Citations: 

    0
  • Views: 

    1504
  • Downloads: 

    0
Abstract: 

Infill development is a complex and multifaceted category. The importance of this development policy lies in sustaining the city and protecting its perepherial environment. This paper attempts to identify the areas of infill development, using a descriptive-analytical method and documentary data, and to identify the programs and priorities of the physical development scenario of Tehran metropolitan. The results show that based on a regional and land use prospect, Tehran does not have a same capacity and infill opportunities for all its regions. Thus, the physical development scenario of Tehran needs to pay more attention to the issue in order to reach an internalized development. Reaching such development requires the following attempts as primary bases for a physical development scenario: prioritizing the peripheral areas and areas requiring intervention, utilizing the potential of infill land use for new development in a short period of time, identifying alternatives and spaces for deployment in the areas of redevelopment, preventing the segregation, preserving the integrity of new and redeveloped reserves for settling down of the population, the creation of multifunctional functions and revitalization of target areas in a worn-out textures based on a bottom-up planning approach.

Yearly Impact: مرکز اطلاعات علمی Scientific Information Database (SID) - Trusted Source for Research and Academic Resources

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Issue Info: 
  • Year: 

    2017
  • Volume: 

    8
  • Issue: 

    4
  • Pages: 

    771-790
Measures: 
  • Citations: 

    0
  • Views: 

    2309
  • Downloads: 

    0
Abstract: 

The software industry is a manifestation of soft skills as well as human abstract and intangible thinking based on human intelligence. However, the effects are understandable. Passing the hardware era and considering software technologies reveals the necessity of the capable human factor and software industry. Despite the efforts that have been made in this field in Iran, yet the technology is not a sustainable industry. Consequently, planning in this field requires a deep consideration and futurology. This article provided alternative futures of the industry for domestic producers and policy makers. The scope of the research was Iranian software sectors until 1404. This study was conducted by applying qualitative methods, such as: PEST analysis, Porter's Forces, content analysis, semi-structured interviews with experts of software industry and developing scenarios by GBN on critical uncertainties. Finally, four scenarios were presented by two main uncertainties, including 1. Government policy and executive advocacy of the software industry, 2. International engagement of it.

Yearly Impact: مرکز اطلاعات علمی Scientific Information Database (SID) - Trusted Source for Research and Academic Resources

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Issue Info: 
  • Year: 

    2022
  • Volume: 

    2
  • Issue: 

    1
  • Pages: 

    112-130
Measures: 
  • Citations: 

    0
  • Views: 

    679
  • Downloads: 

    0
Abstract: 

With the advent of Covid 19, the world entered a new arena of interaction and the world needed a new kind of relationship. These relationships were based on the virtual world, all sectors of the economy, including,It transformed the market for agricultural products. Now the main question is what scenarios we will face in the post-corona era to maintain and develop these developments. Therefore, the aim of the present study was to investigate the future of digital marketing of agricultural products in the post-crown period in the geographical area of Kermanshah province in 1399-1400. The study population was all stakeholders and digital marketing activists of agricultural products in Kermanshah province, 29 of whom were selected using criterion-based sampling. For this purpose, four phases and integrated method (qualitative-quantitative) were used. In the first phase, using content analysis method, the key factors affecting the future of digital marketing of agricultural products in the post-era period were identified. The product of this step was 21 key concepts. In the next step, using the fuzzy Delphi method, the most important influencing factors were identified (14 influential factors). These factors are: 1-Training and improving the digital marketing environment 2-Guaranteeing the quality and originality of the product 3-Providing the necessary facilities and infrastructure 4-Developing legal frameworks 5-Customer orientation 6-Transparency and honesty in advertising 7-Internet Filtering Limitations 8-Government Financial Support for Internet Businesses 9-Improving Product Packaging Standards 10-Creating a Culture of Online Shopping 11-Providing Necessary Internet Platforms 12-Creativity in Product Production Chain 13-Building Trust in How to Pay 14. Studies have shown that the factor of training and improving the digital marketing environment is recognized as the most effective potential factor, both directly and indirectly, and the payment factor is recognized as the most potentially dependent factor, both directly and indirectly. Appropriate and effective content and advertising channel. In the third stage, using Mic Mac software, the most important factors influencing the scenario were identified, and in the final stage, four scenarios were achieved using Senario Wizad software: called development and prosperity scenario, decline period or Death, pre-operational and software period, immaturity and hardware period. According to the research findings, it is suggested to planners and relevant officials to pay serious attention to the components: education and improvement of digital space, infrastructure and facilities, development of laws and frameworks, Internet platform and guaranteeing the quality and originality of the product.

Yearly Impact: مرکز اطلاعات علمی Scientific Information Database (SID) - Trusted Source for Research and Academic Resources

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Issue Info: 
  • Year: 

    2022
  • Volume: 

    7
  • Issue: 

    2
  • Pages: 

    1-22
Measures: 
  • Citations: 

    0
  • Views: 

    173
  • Downloads: 

    15
Abstract: 

Purpose: Clustering and co-word analysis is a method to reveal relationships and links and illustrate the intellectual structure of a scientific field. This research tries to study the intellectual structure of articles in the field of futures studies in Iran by using the technique of co-word analysis. Method: The current research is a descriptive-analytical development with a scientometric approach. The statistical population is 921 articles retrieved records in the field of futures studies. Findings: The findings showed that articles in the field of futures studies in Iran are often associated with positive growth, and in terms of frequency, the keywords scenario, Islamic Republic, and foresight are the most frequent in futures studies. The findings related to the hierarchical clustering led to the formation of 8 clusters in this field, namely "ICT visions", "geographers who love the future", "knowledge development", " Futuristic higher education", "Future of Religion", "Regional Relations", "Strategic Foresight" and "Heavy Weight of Method". Conclusion: According to the findings of the current research and the high frequency of the keyword scenario, as well as the density and relationships of this keyword with other keywords, it can be concluded that the scenario is the dominant approach in futures studies. Also, according to the resulting clusters, it was observed that these researches have a high variety, but addressing the future in many areas is still neglected.

Yearly Impact: مرکز اطلاعات علمی Scientific Information Database (SID) - Trusted Source for Research and Academic Resources

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Issue Info: 
  • Year: 

    2019
  • Volume: 

    8
  • Issue: 

    2
  • Pages: 

    97-104
Measures: 
  • Citations: 

    0
  • Views: 

    119
  • Downloads: 

    79
Abstract: 

Background: Futures study is a science that, given changes in society, identifies future trends for making appropriate and practical decisions. Universities benefit from futures study research to improve their efficiency and make effective decisions. This is increasingly seen in medical sciences universities, which are responsible for public and specialized health education, and their quality development should be addressed. The purpose of this study was to identify components and key indicators of the qualitative development of medical sciences education and writing scenarios based on these. Methods: The present study is a mixed methods study carried out in the medical universities of Iran in 2018-2019. In this qualitative approach, the components and indicators of qualitative development of medical sciences education were identified by the classical Delphi method according to targeted sampling from 10 experts with content analysis that was identified and coded. Following the qualitative portion, a quantitative approach using Scenario Wizards software was used to design robust scenarios. Results: In all, 13 components and 48 indicators were identified in the qualitative development of medical sciences education from which robust scenarios can be considered for futures study, including optimistic, intermediary, and pessimistic scenarios. Conclusion: These results indicate how using each of the medical sciences education’ s qualitative development components and indicators can lead medical sciences universities to consider favorable and unfavorable futures for planning and direction. Recognizing correct components and drawing scenarios for desired futures is essential.

Yearly Impact: مرکز اطلاعات علمی Scientific Information Database (SID) - Trusted Source for Research and Academic Resources

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Issue Info: 
  • Year: 

    2024
  • Volume: 

    4
  • Issue: 

    4
  • Pages: 

    59-79
Measures: 
  • Citations: 

    0
  • Views: 

    86
  • Downloads: 

    0
Abstract: 

Abstract Considering the reduction of fossil fuels and the increase of carbon dioxide caused by these fuels, the transition to renewable and low-carbon energies is inevitable. In this regard, the high capacity of Ahvaz city in the direction of the development of various types of renewable energy can be achieved, which not only reduces energy consumption and costs, but also leads to a cleaner and more stable environment. Therefore, the purpose of this article is to write a scenario for the development of renewable energies in Ahvaz metropolis. The current research is applied in terms of purpose and in terms of method, survey and descriptive-analytical. The necessary information was collected in the form of documents, library and field (questionnaire and interview). The statistical community of the current research is made up of experts in the fields of city and energy. The sampling method in this research is stratified sampling proportional to the volume. Also, the method of analysis was quantitative, which used scenario writing wizard. The results show that the total score of compatible scenarios or in other words the impact of all scenarios is 126, the results of which show the importance of the scenarios of solar energy development for energy supply, development of solar energy within industries, development of solar panels at the level of offices and organizations. The development of solar panels in residential areas is the most compatible and the scenario of continuing the use of fossil fuels for energy production and the development and establishment of nuclear power plants in the region are the least compatible for the development in the city of Ahvaz.

Yearly Impact: مرکز اطلاعات علمی Scientific Information Database (SID) - Trusted Source for Research and Academic Resources

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Author(s): 

Fazli Safar | Niknam Ali

Issue Info: 
  • Year: 

    2024
  • Volume: 

    9
  • Issue: 

    3
  • Pages: 

    690-707
Measures: 
  • Citations: 

    0
  • Views: 

    3
  • Downloads: 

    0
Abstract: 

Purpose: The purpose of this research is providing a solution to help make better decisions in the ambiguous world of uncertainties. In a world full of uncertainties, researchers invented methods such as scenario planning and robust decision making, and for highly ambiguous environments they tough up fuzzy logic. Today, without a decision support system, decision making will be done relatively slowly. Without considering different scenarios, it is not possible to make robust decisions in the face of numerous large and small uncertainties. Methodology: This research is of applied and qualitative type. The data were collected in a documentary and library method from the articles and books available in reliable scientific databases using computer files. The type of data is qualitative and the method of data analysis is thematic analysis. Findings: In robust decision-making, scenarios are used in two ways. In one case, after choosing several alternative decisions, you can write the scenarios that affect them and evaluate the decisions. Otherwise, you can first write different scenarios and then test alternative decisions in those scenarios and choose the optimal decision as the robust decision. Also, fuzzy logic can be used in the form of fuzzy Delphi and other fuzzy calculations in different parts of scenario planning and strategy robustness evaluation. Originality/Value: In this paper, a method was presented according to which a robust decision support system can be developed using the GBN scenario planning method and fuzzy logic. In this method, fuzzy Delphi was used to create scenarios and fuzzy inference system was used to make decisions.

Yearly Impact: مرکز اطلاعات علمی Scientific Information Database (SID) - Trusted Source for Research and Academic Resources

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Issue Info: 
  • Year: 

    2022
  • Volume: 

    7
  • Issue: 

    2
  • Pages: 

    181-202
Measures: 
  • Citations: 

    0
  • Views: 

    198
  • Downloads: 

    24
Abstract: 

Purpose: The future of the construction industry is increasingly influenced by new technologies. In order to adopt appropriate strategies in facing new technologies, it is necessary to know the possible futures of the construction industry. This research was done with the aim of explaining the technological uncertainties and compiling the future scenarios of the construction industry.  Method: The research method is applied and was carried out with a combination of quantitative and qualitative methods. First, the library study was used to determine the technological drivers, then the Structural Analysis was used to explain the technological uncertainties, and finally, the Schwartz method was used to compile the scenarios. The statistical population is experts of construction industry. Findings: Nine technological uncertainties affecting the future of the construction industry have been identified and for each of them, three states of decline, stagnation and progress have been considered. Data analysis by Scenario Wizard shows eight probable scenarios. The portfolio of scenarios including four groups of progress scenarios, towards progress, towards stagnation, and towards wane has been compiled. Conclusion: In the progress scenario, the 89% of uncertainties have developed. In  towards progress, 56% of the factors are in the development status, which indicates the development of the technological factor application. In the stagnation scenario, no progress has been made in the application of uncertainties and they are in a static state. In towards wane, uncertainties have been placed in a situation of reduced use.

Yearly Impact: مرکز اطلاعات علمی Scientific Information Database (SID) - Trusted Source for Research and Academic Resources

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Issue Info: 
  • Year: 

    2020
  • Volume: 

    18
  • Issue: 

    58
  • Pages: 

    59-74
Measures: 
  • Citations: 

    0
  • Views: 

    817
  • Downloads: 

    0
Abstract: 

Tourism is one of the most important development tools in the world. Golestan province based on natural, historical and cultural resources The region is prone to the development of the tourism industry And This province should be in its future policies and plans Pay particular attention to tourism as an effective tool for continuing the process of political, cultural and economic development. Therefore, this research is aimed at developing scenarios for developing the tourism area of Golestan province with a future study approach. In terms of the purpose of this research, the method is a combination of documentary and scrolling methods. The statistical population of this research includes all experts. Which has enough knowledge and experience in the tourism sector. The non-probabilistic sampling method is using two methods for judging and snowball sampling. The data gathering tool was a questionnaire and an interview with experts. The results of this study Based on the Mic-Mac software output showed that the eight main factors affecting the future development of the Golestan province are influential. According to these, eight factors include private sector participation, tourism acceptance culture, entrepreneurship in the tourism sector, establishment of shopping centers, security of domestic and foreign tourists, incomes of the tourism sector and infrastructure of the government in the tourism industry. four scenarios were identified and selected Based on the twofold "uncertainty" and "importance, " For the four likely future of Golestan province from the combination of two axes of uncertainty "tourism entrepreneurship" and "tourism acceptance culture".

Yearly Impact: مرکز اطلاعات علمی Scientific Information Database (SID) - Trusted Source for Research and Academic Resources

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